Developing an Adaptive Management Framework: Scenario Planning in Lebanon

Public schools in Lebanon have largely been closed for the last three years. During the academic years 2019-20 and 2020-21, Lebanon experienced an unprecedented number of crises. The October 2019 political uprisings, the COVID-19 pandemic, an economic collapse, and the Port of Beirut explosion have either amplified existing threats to public education or given rise to new risks.

The overall context and landscape under which QITABI 2 (meaning “my book” in Arabic) was designed have changed dramatically, impacting its operations and implementation. The activity strives to build the educational system’s institutional capacity for sustainability and self-reliance. At the onset of the political uprising, the QITABI 2 team recognized that implementation under the changing context required development of a systematic and forward-looking adaptation framework.

We collaborated with USAID and the consortium partners to develop the framework. The concept was simple—identify and monitor factors that cause operational uncertainty, brainstorm on the likely scenarios these factors can lead to and prepare for potential problems. Key to all this was embedding the framework into existing management and reporting practices.

Our CLA approach has had tangible impact. As a team, we have evolved into reflective practitioners better equipped to respond to on-the-ground realities. Meanwhile, COVID provided a strong proof of concept for our developmental impact. Using adaptive processes honed during previous crises, we supported the ministry’s pivot to distance teaching, helped make learning materials more accessible, supplemented students’ nutritional requirements and are now working on learning recovery programs to address learning loss.